Doctors explain the new mutant COVID strain

News has broken of a mutant coronavirus strain with “significantly faster” transmission rates making its way through the UK.

This variant, which has been dubbed “COVID-20” on social media, first emerged in southeast England in September, and has quickly dominated surrounding regions since. Some areas of England, including London, have now entered into “Tier 4” stay-at-home restrictions, which forbids mixing of households. Restaurants may only do takeout or drive-through service and only essential retailers, like grocery stores, may stay open.

“Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus, and the potential risk it poses, it is with a heavy heart that I must tell you we cannot continue with Christmas as planned,” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted on December 19. In a recent news conference, Johnson claimed it “may be up to 70% more transmissible” than widely circulating variations of the virus, but this figure has yet to be replicated in clinical trials.

Matt Hancock, secretary of Health for England, said in a speech that the mutation may explain why the UK has seen a rapid increase in cases lately. Several European countries have closed their borders to travellers from the UK in an attempt to keep it contained, per The New York Times, although a similar mutation has already been detected in South Africa.

“The United Kingdom has one of the best surveillance systems right now for looking at mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” says Dr Stanley Weiss, professor of medicine at the Rutgers New Jersey Medical School and the department of epidemiology at the Rutgers School of Public Health.

Mutant strain detected in Australia

The NSW Government says returned travellers carrying the mutated form of the COVID-19 virus have been detected in Australia.

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said two returned travellers from the UK who tested positive to COVID-19 were found to be carrying the mutated variant of the virus. However, she reassured people concerned about the recent coronavirus outbreak on Sydney's Northern Beaches. 

"Can I be very clear that the Avalon cluster strain does not have those mutations," she said. 

So, if this variant was going to be detected anywhere, it’s not surprising that it would be found in the UK and subsequently in hotel quarantine in Australia — but what does that mean for the rest of the globe? Here’s what we know so far.

Back up: How common are virus mutations?

“All viruses mutate,” says infectious disease expert Dr Amesh A. Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. This includes influenza, varicella (which causes chickenpox), and yes, even SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. In fact, mutations are part of the reason why you need to get an annual flu shot.

Viruses mutate as part of their life cycle, Dr Adalja says. These pathogens replicate to survive and “mistakes get made when genetic material is copied,” he explains. “A mutation refers to a change in the genetic code.”

SARS-CoV-2 has mutated before, and these strains have been tracked and documented. But there hasn’t been evidence or the suggestion of evidence that these mutations meant anything more for infectiousness.

Are experts worried about the COVID-19 mutation widely circulating in the UK?

“What’s unusual about this mutation is that often you just have one or two changes in the virus,” says Dr Weiss.

This variant detected in the UK has about 20, including a couple involving the spike protein directly, which gives the coronavirus its crown-like structure. This has especially generated “great interest,” says Dr Weiss, as this piece of the virus allows it to latch onto cells and infect those who have been exposed.

While this new mutation seems to spread more easily than previous strains of the novel coronavirus, it doesn’t appear to make people any sicker, says Dr Richard Watkins, an infectious disease physician and professor of medicine at the Northeast Ohio Medical University.

Experts also still have a lot of questions about the details of this new variant. “We don’t know yet whether it changes anything in relationship to the disease,” says John Sellick, D.O., an infectious disease expert and professor of medicine at the University at Buffalo/SUNY in New York. He says there needs to be more concrete evidence that the mutation is, in fact, driving the increase in the UK’s cases, rather than poor compliance with wearing face masks and social distancing.

“We still don’t know everything about this new mutation, but I don’t think it’s anything we need to panic about,” Dr Adajla says.

Do COVID-19 mutations impact the effectiveness of the available coronavirus vaccines?

“I suspect this new strain is already here in the US and we just don’t know it yet,” Dr Watkins says. If it’s not, he says, “it will be soon, especially since 50% of infected people don’t have any symptoms.”

New mutations shouldn’t make a difference in vaccines’ efficacy to help prevent future COVID-19 infections, but experts say that’s now being studied. “Moderna is doing tests with the new strain to make sure that the vaccine covers it appropriately,” Dr Adalja says.

Vaccines prompt your body to develop “many different types of antibodies,” as well as T-cell immunity (i.e. memory cells in your immune system), “which may completely take care of this and all other novel coronavirus strains,” Dr Adalja says. New research on T cells and COVID-19 has found that they may help protect some people who are newly infected with SARS-CoV-2 by remembering past encounters with other human coronaviruses.

Bottom line: Viruses mutate all the time

“The average person doesn’t need to worry about this,” Dr Adalja says. “It’s something that scientists and those of us in the field need to think about and wonder what it means, but the same recommendations apply since the beginning and apply to any strain, whether it has a mutation or not.”

So, while the experts dig into the logistics, it’s important to do your part in reducing the spread of the virus. That means continuing to wash your hands frequently, social distancing from those outside of your household, and wearing a mask when you’re in public.