While human life expectancy has increased significantly since the 19th century, recent research suggests we may have reached a plateau. Despite medical advancements, most of today’s children are unlikely to live beyond 100, according to a new study.
A study published in Nature Aging analysed lifespan data from the longest-living populations, including Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States, from 1990 to 2019.
The findings revealed that since 1990, the average lifespan in these countries has only increased by 6.5 years, raising doubts about whether human life expectancy will exceed 100 years for those born today. The analysis suggests that just 15% of women and 5% of men are expected to reach 100. Researchers concluded that unless biological ageing can be significantly slowed, radical life extension is unlikely this century.
Environmental conditions play a key role in life expectancy, says professor of gerontology and geriatric medicine Stephen Kritchevsky. “In harsh environments, life expectancy is lower,” he explains. The highest life expectancies today are seen in Hong Kong, where women and men live an average of 88 and 83 years, respectively.
In Australia, life expectancy has steadily risen. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the average life expectancy is currently 85.4 years for women and 81.3 years for men, making Australia one of the world’s longest-living countries. However, Indigenous Australians continue to have a significantly lower life expectancy, with men and women expected to live 8.6 and 7.8 years less, respectively, than their non-Indigenous counterparts.
Some argue that medical advancements are responsible for rising life expectancy, but Kritchevsky believes other factors play a greater role. “In 1960, men aged 65 could expect to live an additional 13 years. By 2020, that number increased to 17 years,” he explains. “Some of this gain comes from people entering old age in better shape, and some is due to improved healthcare. But most of the additional years since 1960 are not directly related to medical technology.”
Medicine primarily focuses on treating individual diseases, but ageing-related declines—such as loss of muscle mass, slower brain processing and reduced heart function—are not typically addressed. “If these capacities fail too much, you die,” Kritchevsky adds. These changes occur even in people without chronic diseases and there is little medical focus on reversing these age-related declines.
Many factors influence how long we live. Kritchevsky highlights the most important longevity drivers: sex—women tend to live longer— and social determinants of health—birth size, neonatal and pediatric care, good nutrition, education and good economic circumstances. Additionally, research has shown that inflammation and insulin resistance play a big role in the progression of ageing.
The bottom line
While this study suggests that human lifespan may have reached its peak, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing you can do to live longer and healthier. Making smart lifestyle choices—such as eating a balanced diet, exercising regularly and managing stress—can help slow down ageing and improve your overall well-being.
However, be wary of so-called “anti-ageing” products that promise to reverse time. “There are a lot of bad actors trying to sell ageing cures to hopeful and anxious people,” warns Kritchevsky. He emphasises that any claim promising extreme longevity should be met with scepticism.
Ultimately, this study serves as a reminder to prioritise quality of life over lifespan alone. Whether you live for decades more or reach a century, the focus should be on making the most of the time you have—staying active, maintaining strong social connections and taking care of both body and mind.
Newsletter
